The present theme had to be started from scratch, having only a few elements of population research developed under societal restrictions, persisting in Estonia until the end of the 1980s. The development of research theme has benefitted from historical demography, epidemiology and human geography with established tradition but mainly from the experience accumulated in international population science. The reporting period starts from the officially non-recognised status of the research theme which by now has earned academic as well as governmental acknowledgement. In this view, reporting period refers to the years of infancy and childhood in demographic perspective.

The focus of the theme considers research priorities discussed and agreed upon at national and international meetings between scientific community and decision-makers during the 1990s, in particular the 1993 European Population Conference (Geneva) and the 1998 Regional Population Meeting (Budapest). These meetings identified the key issues of demographic development in the European region with far-streching societal implications.

The research under the theme is divided between four complementary subthemes:

• Long-term trends in population development
• Migration processes and heterogeneity of population development
• Societal implications of population development
• Life course pespective on population development

The subthemes are not those defined adminstratively/formally but indicate substantive directions of research, thus allowing for more comprehensive structuring of the results.

1.1. Long-term trends in population development

1.1.1. Background

The characteristic feature of population science among social disciplines is the focus on longer time periods, with generation as principal unit. Major changes in demographic development are related to new generations which follow the life courses different from their predecessors. The referred focus on longer time periods becomes particularly essential when the inferences about the causes behind such changes are attempted. Of course, this orientation does not outrule the role of short-term perspective which often reflects the principal changes related to generations.

In the analysis of long-term trends, particularly important appears the identification of turning points in demographic development and/or society as a whole. These turning points provide a basis for the periodisation of demographic development, above all the demographic transition, but also distinct subperiods in its aftermath, including baby-boom and "second demographic transition."

In conducting research, the knowledge of this principal timeframe serves for a methodological compass for specific analyses. In a broader context, demographic periodisation often tends to be more fundamental compared to many other developments in society, including political and economic changes. Notably, in small nations like Estonia the referred synchronity may be violated by strong external influences, leading to discrepancies between demographic development and other social domains.

In case of Estonia, research on long-term trends of population development appears important additionally for specific reasons. Firstly, because of repeated societal discontinuities during the XX century, accompanied by principal geopolitical transformation as well as heavy human losses, knowledge on population trends has still noticeable gaps, particularly for the period of WWII and political repressions. On subnational level, the gaps are even larger due to numerous boundary changes.

Secondly, because of the same discontinuities, the study of long-term population development in Estonia provides as an excellent opportunity to comparatively investigate various cohort and period effects. No less importantly, belonging to the group of forerunners of demographic transition, Estonia together with Latvia offers an interesting case for the study of the effects of societal regime on demographic trends.

And last but not least, in case of Estonia the analysis of long-term trends is supported by good data sources - potentially allowing complete coverage of main demographic processes down to 1834, and partially down to the XVII century. The existing sources underline the importance of close cooperation with historical demography, supporting a population perspective through several centuries, consistent with the example of recent case studies undertaken in the framework of European Population Observatory.

The referred considerations have given research on long-term trends a prominent place in the Institute's research programme during the reporting period. Most of the analyses under the corresponding subtheme have been undertaken for the first time in Estonia. Due to numerous gaps still remaining, research in this direction needs to be continued also in the future. As a minimum goal, research must secure that basic population trends are extended back at least to the beginning of the modern nation state, in case of Estonia until 1918, but of course covering the principal stages of population development, even longer perspective is required.

1.1.2. Subtheme frameworks

1.1.2.1. The subtheme has drawn upon many project framework as the development of national time series and their harmonisation has been a central task for most research projects of the Institute. On the other hand, analytical results produced under present subtheme have formed a basis and context for the analyses under other subthemes. Currently research under the subtheme is financed mainly from Ministry of Education target funding grant No.0501463s00.

1.1.2.2. The principal international cooperation framework has included, among others, Comparative Study of Population Trends in the Baltic countries (Estonian Open Society grant E97-3.01-06-805) and Comparative Study of Population Trends in the Baltic and Caucasian countries (RSS grant 233/2000). Migration trends have been studied under the European Population Committee expert group PO-S-REG and cause-specific mortality trends in the framework of the project Cause-Specific Mortality Development in Baltic countries.The cooperation with European Population Committee, European Demographic Observatory as well as NIEPS network should be underlined.

1.1.2.3. Reconstructed and/or harmonised time series have been included in the Estonian Population Databank. Considering the "starting point" of the theme with population data not available for research, all the data series have been developed from scratch or seriously revised during the reporting period.

1.1.2.4. Public interest has been selective towards population trends, biased towards rapid fertility decrease and negative population growth. Secondly, migration trends have been in the focus, however, the attention towards migration has decreased in the recent years. Results on population trends have been used as a background in most parliament/governmental working groups and commissions, also on local government level.

1.1.3. Major results

The major research results under the subtheme can be summarised in the following:

• long-term changes in the age structure of Estonian population as well as its main determinants have been analysed, covering to the full range of population censuses in Estonia 1881-1989, and by means of population projection, extended until 2030. The has considered the repeated border changes during the period, and with the extension to regional level, has shown principal re-positioning of counties according to the proportion of major age groups [24; 27; 105; 130]
• the general pattern of population ageing in Estonia has been analysed; the results indicate that population ageing has been rather similar to general experience of demographically advanced nations over the two centuries 1834-2030, with very specific stagnation for four decades after WWII, followed by rapid acceleration from the 1990s; both the referred subperiods have been analysed and implications to demographic development drawn [26; 27; 124; 131]
• the change from emigration to immigration country have been studied, in framework of demographic transition; although similar to other European countries, the period following the turnaround has been characterised by particular intensity of migration processes; specific analyses have addressed various implications of migration development, including two-wave pattern of urbanisation, regional instability of age structure etc [66; 72; 87; 139; 151; 163; 164]
• long-term trends of minority populations from 1918 onwards have been reconstructed and analysed; the impact of geopolitical and societal changes, imposed from outside of Estonia, have proven decisive compared to demographic development on the fate of national minorities; in comparative perspective with other European countries, such as Finland, Ireland, Romania, Slovakia and Switzerland, has shown the divergent development path [40; 49; 88; 111]
• in the study of fertility transition, the series of Coale indices at regional (county) level has been calculated (1881-1959); the results add Estonia to the context of Princeton study; Estonia has proven to be among the group forerunners of fertility decline after France, the concept of Baltoscandia consisting of demographically homogeneous populations, has received strong support [101; 142; 143; 155; 156]
• systematic efforts have been undertaken to reconstruct the trends of demographic processes not covered with comprehensive vital (and/or census) statistics; among others induced abortion has demonstrated unique interaction with fertility development; combined analysis of cohort fertility and abortion has formed the background for understanding the postwar fertility waves and parity distribution [5; 8; 23; 43; 103; 108]
• the internationally comparable definition of infant mortality has been introduced in Estonia in 1993 by the Bureau of Medical Statistics in collaboration with the Institute; followingly, the time series of infant mortality rate 1922-1998 has been harmonised and analysed; long-term infant mortality trend has been further addressed in the framework of Baltic mortality project as well as used for life table calculations [21; 44; 68; 157]
• discontinuity of population (and societal) development across three successive occupations, related to WWII makes the Baltic states a special case in Europe; systematic efforts have been undertaken to fill in - step by step - the gap between the pre- and postwar population trends; among others, by means of indirect demographic techniques, the estimates of migration flows and age structures for the period before the 1959 census have been accomplished; the analysis has indicated a major contribution of repressions to underreplacement fertility in Estonia as well as in Latvia in the period of baby boom [8; 22; 46; 48; 67; 100]
• methodologically, the analysis of population development throughout Soviet period has shown selective impact on population processes: while some processes (e.g. mortality) have been rather strongly affected, causing divergence, some others have experienced virtually no effect; among others, family formation has followed closely the Baltoscandian pattern with early and significant shift from marriage toward cohabitation [8; 23; 27; 34; 44; 71; 95; 110; 112; 148]
• the long-term mortality development, comparatively for three Baltic countries, has been analysed, using life table methods; when adding newly reconstructed data for the 1950s, the analyses has revealed a sharp dividing line between transitional mortality decline and the start of the mortality stagnation in late 1950s which makes Estonia, together with Latvia, a rather specific case in terms of mortality development, compared to Central and European experience [44; 68; 93; 109; 158]
• coordinated by INED, in cooperation with Latvian University and Lithuanian Population Institute, the analysis of cause-specific mortality development has been undertaken, preceded by relevant data harmonisation; the analysis goes back to 1950s, covering all versions of ICD applied in the period, partly bridging the gap with pre-war trends; the analysis is in progress [44; 68]
• labor force participation trends have been analysed, applying the method of working-life tabels, based on census points 1934-1989, adding the data from labour force survey, the trends have been extended to the period of economic transition; extensive changes in economic activity have been analysed against the background of long-term trends [53; 54; 55; 136; 150; 162]

1.2. Migration processes and heterogeneity of population development

1.2.1. Background

In the period of demographic transition, Estonia like other European nations, was a typical emigration country. The major destinations of emigrants from Estonia were the sparsely populated frontiers of Russian Empire including Siberia, North Caucasus, the Crimea etc. The establishment of national independence coincided but also contributed to the cessation of emigration and decreasing migration potential was directed mainly towards internal settlement system. In the postwar period, Estonia, like other European countries at the same stage of demographic development, turned from an emigration to an immigration country. Because of the principal geopolitical change immigration processes to Estonia reached remarkably high intensity and started about a decade earlier.

Although dating back for several decades, the most significant implications of migration processes concern the present and future population composition. Immigrant population has increased from virtually zero to about 36 per cent of total population, reflecting the presence of numerous foreign-born population together second generation. Very high in the Baltoscandian but also in the European perspective, the proportion of foreign-origin population, but more importantly, the divergence in demographic and social development dating back to the timing of demographic transition, requires consideration whatever the societal process concerned.

Heterogeneity of demographic development has been increased by the highly dissimilar age structure, in itself typical to immigrant population. In short, the trends and patterns for the total population of Estonia tend to be a misleading assembly of two different, sometimes opposite parts. The duality of native- and foreign-origin subpopulations is likely to persist in Estonia, quite differently from European immigration countries, the second generation of foreign-borns has displayed weak signs of integration. The concept of integration itself needs to be re-considered to address highly specific population groups, such as the inhabitants in former military cities.

The foreign-origin population understandably does not form homogeneous entity, remarkably high level of heterogeneity amongst it makes research under the subtheme particularly important in Estonia. Research requires the understanding of migration development by place of birth/origin, ethnicity, religious affilition and family networks etc. Because of the geopolitical rearrangements after WWII, the postwar migration processes in Estonia differ in several respect from European countries: to a large extent, the flows were controlled from outside the country, including the deportations of native population, and a large proportion of immigrants were military-related.

These and other aspects have been considered under the subtheme. Because research in migration and population heterogeneity was administratively disfavoured until the 1990s, virtually all results can be considered original.

1.2.2. Subtheme frameworks

1.2.2.1. The principal project framework of the sub-theme has been the Estonian National Minority and Immigrant Population Survey, methodologically benefitting from Estonian Family and Fertility Survey, and contributing to most analyses accomplished under the subtheme. The subtheme has also benefitted from several other project frameworks, including the studies on brain drain, ethno-linguistic characteristics of the population and Estonian emigrants in Sweden.

1.2.2.2. The principal international cooperation framework of the subtheme has been the European Population Committee expert group PO-S-MIN (1994-1998), expert group PO-S-MIG (1994-1998) and expert group PO-S-REG. The subtheme has also developed collaboration with research networks CEC-CIPA-CT93-6155 COSTA2 and CEC-CIPA-CT92-4028 under the coordination of Berlin Institute for Comparative Social Research.

1.2.2.3. Important component of the subtheme has been the development of database for research as in the Soviet statistical system, population heterogeneity was not addressed. On one hand, event history data on two national minorities, and immigrant population has been collected. On the other hand, harmonisation of considering the needs of the subtheme has been undertaken.

1.2.2.4. Research and activities under the subtheme - due to specific concern of the society - have been carried out in close cooperation of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Researchers of the Institute have been involved in several commissions, including the working group for national language strategy and Estonian Migration Foundation. The results have been presented and discussed in numerous meetings, involving high-ranking government officials.

1.2.3. Major results

The major research results under subtheme can be summarised in the following:

• the extensive postwar migration flows across Estonian borders have been analysed and causes outlined, including the examination of enlargement of Estonia's migration hinterland and identification of major components of migration flows [11; 72; 87; 128, 131; 165].
• the role and characteristic features of military-related migration have been studied; the movements of various professional categories as well as their families/relatives have proven to be related to military instituons/ territories; paradoxically, the referred effect of this migration has been most clearly visible in international migration of Estonia in the 1990s [66; 128; 139; 156].
• regional population change as a result of internal migration processes has been studied for the 1980s-1990s; the results indicate that the turnaround in rural-urban migration has been closely consistent with the stage of demographic development while the influence of economic transition has been relatively weak and divergent [31; 39; 73, 75; 92]
• the methodological concept of the foreign-origin population and corresponding research methods have been systematically applied in the analyses of population development; the results have underlined the principal analytical importance of the concept for the understanding of the patterns in the total population across major population processes and characteristics [30; 40; 50; 70; 145; 149]
• country/place of origin and ethnic composition of the foreign-origin population has been studied, based on survey and census statistics; remarkable diversity, accounting for the presence of more than 120 ethnic groups in Estonia, has been proven consistent with the rapid enlargement of migration hinterland in South-Eastern direction in the 1970-1980s [4; 18; 19; 76; 89; 132; 153; 154]
• the concepts of mother tongue (emakeel) and usual language (tavakeel) have been elaborated and applied in the context of immigrant population in Estonia; while usual language has often been Russian, mother tongue has displayed considerable diversity with unmet needs; considering mother tongue, the sociological concept of "Russian-speaking" population has proven unjustified; the results have served for the development of national language strategy [41; 89; 91; 104; 122; 152]
• the experience of societal transition among foreign-origin population has been studied, revealing systematic dissimilarity in industrial/occupational structure which translated to progressive divergence in economic activity in the 1990s; in the European perspective, the labour market disadvantage of immigrant population has been relatively limited [38; 52; 63; 78; 81; 82]
• for the first time, both national minority populations surviving the implications of WWII, Russians and Ingerians have been comparatively studied; the cohort analysis has demonstrated systematic and persistent differences in their population development, among others against the background of Finland and Russian Federation respectively [9; 12; 40; 41; 49; 88]
• the concept of nativity has been introduced and applied systematically in research programme of the Institute; the household characteristics, family formation and social networks of native Russian minority and ethnic Russian immigrants have been comparatively studied, the results of the first stage of analysis have proven highly promising and further research is to follow [24; 30; 64; 65; 70; 98; 106; 123; 125]
• integration of the population of foreign-origin has been conceptualised as a process stretching across generations; rather differently from the experience of European immigration countries, the results have shown no progression towards integration among the second generation of immigrants in Estonia which has to be considered in corresponding government strategy and programmes [30; 64; 65; 86; 99; 113; 114; 126; 133; 149]
• the emigration of highly-skilled professionals in the countries of economic transition, has been studied by special survey; in comparative perspective of Central and Eastern Europe, in case of Estonia brain drain has not proven a major concern, similarly to Latvia [120; 129]

1.3. Societal implications of population development

1.3.1. Background

Population development does not represent an isolated phenomenon but has strong and multifaceted societal implications. In Europe, the implications of population development form a matter of increasing concern, addressed regularly by national government and international organisations. Compared to many other fields, an essential feature of these implications lies in the fact that the cause and effect are typically separated from each other by a considerable time-span. Once the causes have had their effect, the only viable strategy appears the timely adaptation of society to emerging changes. For population science, this underlines the importance of monitoring, analysing and predicting the consequences of population development well ahead of time.

Research of societal implications of population at the Institute has centred around population ageing which involves a number of principal changes in the patterns of national economy, health and social care, tax and pension schemes, residential construction and other important domains of society. As a country with severe political, economic and social discontinuities, Estonia's characteristic feature is the marked imbalance between demographic and economic development.

From a population perspective, the situation in Estonia parallels to that of other demographically advanced nations. With comparatively early demographic transition and a consequently high proportion of elderly in its population, the prevalence of chronic health disorders, increased individualism and transformed intergenerational relations, combined with below-replacement fertility demand for considerable allocations to various social expenditures.

With respect to economic development, however, Estonia belongs to the developing rather than the developed nations. Ranked by the amount of (per capita) GDP, Estonia not only lags behind Western nations but also behind many Third World countries. The restructuring and modernisation of economy, infrastructure etc requires large capital investments. The referred combination of advanced demographic state and underdeveloped economy appears unique and implies heavy competition for resources between economic and social needs. In a broader framework, this was the main reason why UN has introduced aside developed and developing countries a special notion for the situation - the countries with economies in transition.

Research under the subtheme includes a set of analyses focusing on the recent changes in the economic activity of the population, the domain which has been most directly influenced by ongoing societal transition. Research in this direction is characterised by population-centred approach and systematic application of demographic methods. On one hand, research in the referred direction has covered different labour market processes, on the other hand, the transition experience of major population groups has been addressed. The majority of the analyses under subtheme have been accomplished for the first time in Estonia.

1.3.2. Subtheme frameworks

1.3.2.1. The principal project framework of the subtheme has been research project Population Ageing in Estonia, which is a national part of the comparative research programme Dynamics of Population Ageing in the ECE Countries (DPA). The subtheme has also benefitted from a number other theme-related project frameworks, supported by Estonian Science Foundation.

1.3.2.2. The principal international framework of the subtheme have been the coordination by DPA programme United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (1993+), Network for Integrated European Population Studies, NIEPS (2000-2002) and the Population Policy Acceptance Survey (second round, 2000+). The principal national cooperation has involved various sections of the Ministry of Social Affairs, National Social Insurance Board and other relevant institutions.

1.3.2.3. Research under subtheme combines all three sources of population information, vital, census and survey statistics. For the study of population ageing, particularly important has been the role of Estonian Ageing Databank, based internationally harmonised 1989 census records of the population aged 50+ and their family members. For the study of transition exprience of the population, particularly important has been the contribution of Estonian Labour Force Survey which provided detailed event history information on labour market changes since 1989.

1.3.2.4. Research under the subtheme has supported policy applications in different fields, including the reform of national pension system, development of health care system, development of long-term care facilities for the elderly. Among others, the policy-relevance of research under subtheme has been acknowledged by the National Science Award in Social Science (2000). Theme-related research results has been included in national reports to intergovernmental population conferences, on national reports to UN, discussed at the Academic Council of the President etc. Recently, the Institute has been involved in the iniative to develop a national ageing research programme, in cooperation with a number of national research institutions.

1.3.3. Major results

The major research results under the subtheme can be summarised in the following:

• the emergence and advancement of Third Age has been analysed by means of Laslett indices; the analysis reveals significant underdevelopment of the referred life cycle stage in Estonia, primarily due to prolonged mortality stagnation, quite differently from pioneering nations of population ageing in Europe [27; 45; 74]
• spatial differentiation of population ageing process has been studied, to visualise the patterns, series of analytical maps has been developed with county and community level dissagregation; the analysis has revealed extensive transformation in the regional patterns of population ageing; with significant implications for regional policies, ageing process is increasingly concentrated in cities of Northern and North-Eastern part of the country [46; 47; 69; 74]
• marital status and living arrangements of older population has been analysed, paying particular attention to residential autonomy and generational coresidence; the results revealed very high proportion of lone-living elderly women in Estonia, reflecting the combined effect of European marriage pattern, selective population losses in the war and extremely large gender gap in life expectancy [47; 94; 160]
• housing conditions have been addressed from population perspective, for the first time in postwar Estonia; the results indicated that quite apart from the profile of needs, the elderly, especially oldest-olds featured the lowest level of modern amenities whereas families with children were characterised with highest dwelling density, much below the acceptable standards [6; 27; 74; 134; 135]
• differential impact of economic transition on labour force participation and incomes has been studied; the results displayed the sharpest shrinking of employment opportunities and per capita incomes among young olds; from the life course perspective, employment decline was translated into drop of retirement age, in some population groups below the statutory retirement age; loss of savings has introduced strong cohort effects [26; 27; 53; 74; 79; 160; 161]
• the future course of population ageing has been projected, applying alternative demographic scenarios; the results revealed, irrespective of scenario, rapid and irreversible decline in dependency ratios which point to urgent necessity for reform in order to secure the sustainability of pension system and acceptable living standard of future cohorts of elderly [67; 72; 74; 144]
• the patterns of elderly migration have been studied, compared to stable countries, the results showed relatively modest rise of mobility around retirement age; in a broader context of migration development, population ageing has contributed importantly to the turnaround of urban-rural migration flows which occurred in Estonia in the 1980s [27; 37; 62; 74]
• series of analyses have focused on changes of economic activity of the population during transition period, covering employment, unemployment, economic activity, sectoral and occupational composition, self-employment, part-time employment, multiple jobholding etc. In the context of Central and Eastern Europe, the results point to very extensive adjustment, in particular in sectoral composition of employment; against that background the declines in employment/levels on unemployment have been fairly moderate [55; 80; 97; 115; 116; 117]
• the labour market experience of population groups by gender, age, education and other characteristics has been analysed; the experience of men and women has not been markedly different in Estonia, in respect to unemployment women have even fared better; transition has equipped younger cohorts with the perspective of unusually rapid career advancement, introducing a specific cohort effect [2; 3; 7; 32; 33; 53; 54; 55; 77]
• set of studies have addressed population-related policies in Estonia, in Baltoscandian and European context; the analyses have elaborated the concept of ageing policies which aim at the adaptation of society as a whole to the consequencies of population ageing; the results underline the principal discrepancy between population and economic development as a major source of problems in the field [36; 58; 59; 60; 61; 83; 84; 85; 107; 118; 119; 137; 138]

1.4. Life course perspective on population development

1.4.1. Background

During the two recent decades the advancement of population science, and social science in general, has been shaped by the rapidly increasing application of life course approach and event history methodology. It indicates a growing recognition among social scientists that event history perspective is often the most appropriate empirical representation one can get on the substantive processes under study.

The principal advantage of life course approach, compared to competitive frameworks, has been its universal applicability to all major life careers of population, covering family formation, childbearing, residential mobility and migration, education and labour force participation, changes in living arrangements, health transitions and disability etc. No less importantly, event history methodology has been praised for its inherent interdisciplinary capacity, allowing to integrate knowledge from a number of research fields and enhanced potential to unravel causality.

In the context population science, life course approach and event history methodology forms a natural extension of long-established record of quantitative measurement and analysis, in which demography has always excelled among social sciences. In technical sense, modern event history methodology stems from the cross-fertilisation between the principles of classical life table analysis and multivariate statistical techniques. In research setting, the application of life course approach and event history methodology has two basic requirements.

One one hand, the methodology appears computationally demanding, and in fact, its wider spread owes greatly to the rapid progress of PC-technology since the end of 1980s. Also, relevant methods require special skills and software, still unavailable in standard statistical packages. On another hand, the shift to event history methodology has imposed new requirements on data, and its quality in particular. In essence, the referred methodological development has led to the constitution of representative life history surveys with specific design, instruments and procedures, applied in national as well as in cross-national scale. Although the development of new sources has been a serious effort, it has paid off manifold through the extension of scientific prospects.

In its research activities, the Institute has given due consideration to the referred methodological development throughout the 1990s. Aside developing relevant capacity via targeted research training and cooperation, both nationally and internationally, particularly important has been the preparation and implementation of a series of nationally representative event history surveys, discussed specifically under theme 2.3. Integrated surveys have provided a basis for set of analyses on major life careers, by means of event-history modeling, and results, often pathbreaking or even surprising against the background of cross-sectional analyses, prevailing in social research in Estonia.

In the Estonian context, event history techniques have proven additionally useful for filling in retrospectively the gaps in population development on which existing census and vital statistics has proven deficient, corresponding applications different processes, time periods and population groups. Major research of analyses under the subtheme, virtually all undertaken for the first time in the country, are brought together in a national monograph published in the Fall 2001, further analyses are in progress under diverse project frameworks.

1.4.2. Subtheme frameworks

1.4.2.1. The principal project framework of the sub-theme has been the Estonian Family and Fertility Survey, a national part of the European FFS / GGS. The subtheme has also benefitted from several other project frameworks, including theme-related projects supported by Estonian Science Foundation, UNFPA/UNDP and John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation.

1.4.2.2. The principal international cooperation frameworks of the subtheme have been the Informal Working Group of the European FFS at United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (1988+) and Network for Integrated European Population Studies, NIEPS (2000-2002). The principal national cooperation framework has been the Working Group for Estonian Family and Fertility Survey (1991+) which brings together scientific potential from different national research institutions and experts from government institutions.

1.4.2.3. The data for the subtheme is provided by the set of nationally representative event history surveys (Estonian Family and Fertility Survey, Estonian Labour Force Survey, Estonian National Minority Survey and Estonian Health Survey). The surveys have been based on integrated programme, comparable definitions and procedures.

1.4.2.4. Research and activities under the subtheme is highly policy-relevant, on one hand due to its capacity to establish a link individual-level behaviours with population-level trends, and on the other hand due to its capacity to address complex interdependencies across different domains of society. Aside a number of scientific publications and conferences, policy-relevant results under the theme have been disseminated through a series of seminars to parlamentarians (1997), joournalists (1998) and development planners (1999). The results have applied by the Commission for Population and Family Policies at Ministry of Social Affairs (Perekoda).

1.4.3. Major results

The major research results under subtheme can be summarised in the following:

• the life course approach and event history methodology have been introduced into population research, and more generally into social research practice in Estonia for the first time, starting from the planning of relevant research designs, to their implementation and analytical techniques [1; 17; 50; 51]
• the results of the cohort analysis of demographic development have been used to methodologically integrate the programme of five nationally representative event history surveys; the surveys cover major life careers of Estonian population in the second half of the 20th century, supporting various directions of life course research [28; 51]
• the start of partnership career has been studied, among others by means of event history models; the results indicate a principal shift from (direct) marriage to cohabitation among native population; quite apart from Central and Eastern Europe, cumulative prevalence of consensual union at entry into first union in Estonia has reached levels (over 90 per cent), underlining the concept of Baltoscandia [34; 50]
• the analysis of reproductive careers has addressed pregnancy histories with complete typology of outcomes; the results have shown remarkably high frequency of induced abortions, used not only for preventing pregnancies among unmarried women but also for spacing and stopping in marital unions; despite recent decline, the results point to continued reliance on abortion among some population groups; similarly to most of Europe, sexual activity has become disconnected from partnership career [22; 50]
• the subsequent stages of fertility career have been studied, applying parity-specific approach; the results underline that for the first time following six-seven decades of stability, the sharp period change in the 1990s could lead to a principle shift in generation replacement, or alternatively, be compensated by the rise, if large enough, of fertility in later stages of childbearing career i.e. maintaining the stability of parity progression ratios [42; 43; 50]
• the analysis of educational career, modeling the progression upward the hierachy of school system, has placed the onset of stagnation in university education among the birth cohorts of the late 1930s/early 1940s; interestingly, the analysis displayed persistent strengthening of educational segregation in Estonia throughout entire postwar period, quite opposite to official proclamations about equal access to university education [50; 57]
• working careers of the population have been analysed mostly from female perspective, paying particular attention to the discontinuity of women's labour force attachment related to family career; event history models have been applied to analyse the exit from and return to employment; starting from birth cohorts of the 1940s, the extension of work interruptions has gradually decreased the lifetime employment record of women in Estonia [50; 54; 56; 159]
• for the first time in Estonia migration processes have been studied from the life course perspective, with attention on the interaction between residential mobility and other major events, including education, work, family formation etc; against the background of repeated societal dicontinuity, the results demonstrate noticeable stability of life-course migration patterns across generations [31; 50]
• the analyses have systematically addressed intercohort variation of major life careers; results of event history modeling show significant impact of childhood conditions on subsequent careers; the effect of social background of parents prior to sovetisation and religious affilition can be clearly traced, inspite the efforts of regime; separate analysis addressed the impact of locus of control, showing systematic differentiation across careers [1; 17; 26]
• trends in the timing of entry into first sexual intercourse, leaving parental home, first union, parenthood and school-to-work transition have been studied in the framework of transition to adulthood; in the cohort range covered, the analysis reveals prolonged juvenation of the transition and concentration into shorter age-span, the trends in the opposite direction have started relatively recently and are not yet fully reflected in life history data [13; 29; 50]

1.5. Publications

Publications 1996-2003

Publications 1991-1995